A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
